Risk Solver 風險分析工具
Risk Solver is the easiest, fastest, and most powerful tool you can buy for risk analysis of your Excel models, using Monte Carlo simulation. Designed for multi-core PCs and Excel 2007 (or Excel 2003), it's a true "industrial strength" risk analysis tool.
Has your company ever missed opportunities or lost money because single-point estimates of market demand, materials costs, or project completion time turned out to be way off the mark? There's no escaping uncertainty -- demand fluctuates, costs increase, and things take longer than expected.
But you can capture the uncertainty in your Excel model, and explore its consequences -- taking into account not just a "best, average and worst case" scenario, but thousands of scenarios -- in seconds. And modifying your existing Excel model to do this is easier than you think, with Risk Solver. Risk analysis expert Dr. Sam Savage says, "Risk Solver does for uncertainty what the spreadsheet did for numbers."
With Risk Solver, each time you change a number on the spreadsheet, a new simulation with thousands of trials is performed -- often in no more time than a single spreadsheet "recalc" -- and a full range of simulation results -- including charts and statistics -- can be displayed. Suddenly, you find that insights about your model, and decisions you can make, start to flow intuitively. Early users have called this instant, interactive feedback "addictive."
Risk Solver uses Frontline's Polymorphic Spreadsheet Interpreter technology to achieve breakthrough simulation speeds -- up to 100 times faster than normal Excel-based Monte Carlo simulation -- thus making Interactive Simulation practical every time you change a number on the spreadsheet. PSI Technology™ uses vectorized evaluation to effectively compute hundreds or thousands of Monte Carlo trials in parallel, for unmatched speed and responsiveness.
Great-Looking Charts in Seconds
You'll be amazed at how quickly you can create high-quality charts and graphs of your results, print them, or copy and paste them into PowerPoint or any Windows application. Like everything else in Risk Solver -- but unlike its competitors! -- charts update instantly when you change colors, titles, gridlines, legends and other options -- and when model inputs change! You can create PDF and CDF (forward or reverse) charts for uncertain variables, and Frequency, Cumulative Frequency (forward and reverse) and Sensitivity (Tornado) charts for uncertain results, plus more charts for distribution fitting.
More Industrial-Strength Features
Risk Solver is a true "industrial strength" risk analysis product. It gives you more sampling methods, more analytic distributions, more statistics and risk measures, more aids for correlation and distribution fitting, more flexible charts and graphs, and an easier, faster graphical interface. All of which is designed to make your analysis more productive. For example:
- Four high-quality random number generators
- Standard Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube, and Sobol (randomized QMC) sampling
- 40 probability distributions from Bernoulli to Weibull, including custom distributions
- Full support for Stochastic Libraries containing pre-generated Monte Carlo trials
- Facilities for publishing and using general or company-specific Certified Distributions
- 20 statistics and risk measures, including SemiVariance, VaR and Conditional VaR
- Rank order correlation of dissimilar distributions, with automatic adjustment of correlation matrices
- Automatic fitting of continuous and discrete distributions to user data or simulation results
- Error filtering and easy ways to include/exclude scenarios to obtain conditional distributions